Justin Wheeler — CEO, Berkadia (3 trade ideas)

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Date Ticker Direction Thesis Source
Feb 17, 2026 LONG "We were one of the largest buyers of retail last year... going to go heavy into that [convenience-based, grocery-anchored retail]. People haven't built in a long time, so there's very little supply." Unlike multifamily which is suffering from an oversupply glut, neighborhood retail has had zero new construction. High occupancy + no competition = pricing power to push rents. Long grocery-anchored retail REITs as a defensive, cash-flowing play in 2026. Consumer spending slowdown affecting tenant solvency. CNBC
Property Play: Scenes from a CRE finance conf...
Feb 17, 2026 LONG "There seems to be just tons of demand for it... we think that the next five years there's not an over supply situation." Despite fears of AI efficiency reducing space needs, the physical infrastructure required for compute (Hyperscalers) continues to outpace supply. Long Data Center REITs and infrastructure providers. Exit risk/valuation concerns if liquidity dries up; long-term AI efficiency reducing physical footprint. CNBC
Property Play: Scenes from a CRE finance conf...
Feb 17, 2026 NEUTRAL "Most of the markets, especially the southeast markets... have an over supply problem that's probably going to last for another, you know, 6 to 12 months." While housing is unaffordable (keeping people renting), the sheer volume of new apartment deliveries prevents landlords from raising rents. Operational costs (labor/insurance) are rising while revenue is flat. Avoid/Neutral on Multifamily developers and REITs until the supply glut is absorbed (late 2026). Supply absorbs faster than expected due to construction financing freeze. CNBC
Property Play: Scenes from a CRE finance conf...